First, letβs count the number of ways the birthdays could be arranged, assuming no one was born on February 29. We order the 22 people, and break this own into 22 tasks. The \(i\) th task is choosing a birthday for the \(i\) th person. There are 365 ways to complete each task, regardless of how previous tasks were done. By the Product Rule, the number of birthday arrangements is
\begin{equation*}
365^{22} \approx
2.346621351 \times 10^{56}.
\end{equation*}
Next, letβs compute the number of ways the birthdays could be arranged, assuming no one was born on February 29 and no two people share a birthday. Again, we break this into 22 tasks, where the \(i\) th task is choosing the birthday for the \(i\) th person. The difference is in the number of ways to complete each task. There are 365 was to complete the first task. There are only 364 ways to complete the second task, since we cannot choose the same birthday as the first person. Notice that the number of ways does not depend on what day was chosen for the first person. Similarly, there are 363 ways to complete the second task, and so on. In general, there are \(365 - (i - 1)\) ways to complete the \(i\) th task. By the Product Rule, the number of birthday arrangements so that no two share a birthday is
\begin{equation*}
\underbrace{365 \cdot 364 \cdot 363 \dots 344}_{22\text{ terms }}
\approx 1.230344586 \times 10^{56}.
\end{equation*}
The likelihood of an event happening (assuming all possible events are equally likely) is the ratio of the number of ways the particular event can occur divided by the total number of events. We can compute that
\begin{equation*}
\frac{1.230344586 \times 10^{56}}{2.346621351 \times 10^{56}}
\approx 0.5243.
\end{equation*}
That means if birthdays are arranged randomly, there is a 52% chance that no two people in the class share a birthday. This is the largest gathering where that is greater than 50%. If we do the same computation with twice as many people, there is only a 6.7% chance that no one shares a birthday.